Ethiopia is at a critical juncture in her history. All indications suggest that Ethiopia is on the absolute brink of all out war with Eritrea. Today, more than at any time prior to this, there is a need for cohesive, efficient and effective leadership. In an attempt to assess the political environment in Addis Ababa, Addis Tribune has conducted an interview with Political Science Professor Merara Gudina of the Addis Ababa University. Professor Merara is also chairman of the Oromo National Congress. The Oromo National Congress is an opposition political party established in April, 1996.
The following are the written answers provided by Professor Merara to questions prepared by Addis Tribune.
Addis Tribune: What impact is the ongoing conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea having on the political situation in Ethiopia?
Prof Merera: Although the implications of the current Ethio-Eritrean conflict cannot be fully known until the dust is settled, from what is known to date, we can safely say that it can change both the course and the direction of Ethiopian politics. To put it more concretely, the unholy alliance and the infamous back door deal that have led to the separation of Eritrea and which informed much of the EPRDF politics for the last seven and half years have failed to work and led the two regimes into serous crisis. Undoubtedly, this is both the most serious failure as well as the gravest crisis for the two regimes, which have been comrades' in-arms. Now, the EPRDF leadership that has refused to accommodate the opposition forces while allowing the EPLF special privileges in the country, willy or nilly, has to change course. That means, the EPRDF leadership has to open up the political space - if it wants to face the Eritrean challenge meaningfully. In fact, seeking a popular support from the Ethiopian people and continuing a policy of marginalization of the opposition and repression against the democratic voice in the country is a contradiction in terms. Sooner or later, the EPRDF has to make a clear choice between the two: opening up the political space and gain the solid support of the Ethiopian people or continuing the repression of the democratic voice and face the external challenge alone. The other impact of the Ethio-Eritrean conflict is the EPRDF's contradictory policies regarding the country's national unity. If the EPRDF leadership have the mind to learn from the current crisis, although it can be considered an irony of history, on the question of defending the country's sovereignty, once in the Menelik palace, it has to think like Menelik. I think, at least part of the TPLF/EPRDF leadership, which was looking to Eritrea both for advice and support and now partly or fully has already taken the first steps towards that end. What is more, both the TPLF/EPRDF and the EPLF leaderships have been a darling of the West and especially, the Americans were spreading the story of a 'new breed of leaders with new vision' championing peace, prosperity as well as democracy from Eritrea to the countries of the Great lakes. Now as all such stories are being shattered, a period of rethinking for the international community regarding the follies of their past policies seem under way. In short, the long-term impact of this conflict may well be the opening of yet another new chapter in Ethiopian history.
Addis Tribune: How do you assess the way the situation is being handled by the present Ethiopian government?
Prof Merera: Except the mobilization drive and seeking of contributions from the Ethiopian public - much of the activities are taking place behind closed doors. And many people are wondering about what the government is up to while many more have serious doubts regarding the will and intentions of the TPLF/EPRDF leadership. People don't see the government taking critical measures essential for national defense such as the overhauling of its incompetent diplomatic personnel where it seems the government lost the initiative to the Eritrean side, the creation of enough democratic space to secure both popular and solid support from the various sectors of the Ethiopian people, etc. In my opinion, it would be a grave mistake if the government goes to a long drawn out war or costly war without fully rallying the various sectors of the Ethiopian population behind itself. No less importantly, the danger of yet another back door deals against the people of Ethiopia should also be watched out [for].
Addis Tribune: How would you handle the situation? What would you do that EPRDF is not doing? What would you not do that the EPRDF is doing?
Prof Merera: As it is clearly indicated in the answer to the above questions, whether it is me or any other responsible leadership should know that the most effective way for national defense is ensuring popular support by opening up the political space. In a nutshell: first and foremost, such a leadership should stop the secretive maneuvers and palace intrigues in the modus-operandi of the Ethiopian state and make the policies transparent in a manner [such that] the executing officials are accountable to the people in whose name policies are made. Secondly, popular mobilization should be given precedence over cadre style mobilization, which had been dreaded by most people during Mengistu's period and party responsible for his regime's defeat. Thirdly, to improve the quality of the country's diplomatic personnel, more credit be given to excellence than to quota or loyalty in such time of crisis. By now the EPRDF leadership should understand its quota delivery has nothing to do with solving the national or ethnic question in Ethiopia. No less importantly, to make the country at peace with itself so as to enable the Ethiopian people to face the external challenge, the national reconciliation should be facilitated without delay, an essential precondition for peace, genuine democratization and positive development. And in my view, any make-believe political theater short of this [will] neither bring durable peace nor democracy to the Ethiopian people.
As to what should not be done is exactly the opposite of what I have just underlined above - things the TPLF/EPRDF leadership continue to do, either because of lack of the political will or incentive, or both, to rectify.
Addis Tribune: The Ethiopian government has accepted the recommendations of various groups including the OAU's regarding resolving the Eritrean/Ethiopian conflict. Eritrea has rejected all the recommendations. How do you think Ethiopian government should proceed?
Prof Merera: What should be clear from the outset is that, the TPLF/EPRDF leadership is a prisoner of its own policies. To put it more precisely, part of the Ethiopian population and especially the international community could not comprehend why the EPRDF leadership suddenly has begun to cry wolf - after years of back door deals and special relationship with the EPLF leadership. Naturally people are not supplying stones to warring brothers. That is why partly the international community, especially those who have been supporting the projects of the two brothers, were dumb founded when the conflict broke out. At any rate, the possible ways out at this stage in a nutshell are:
- ensuring the military capability of the Ethiopian army;
- responding to the opposition's call for national reconciliation so as to get the undivided popular support from various sectors of the Ethiopian population for the sacred cause of the country's national defense and
- initiate a new diplomatic offensive by using capable people both within and outside the government, etc.
In my opinion, the above mentioned actions can send a clear message to the Eritrean side than the numerous ultimatums to this date to which the EPLF leadership has given a donkey ear and has been dismissing as bluffs of the Woyane leaders.
Addis Tribune: There are media reports that Eritrea is assisting the OLF. Eritrea has provided the OLF with facilities for radio broadcasting. The OLF claims to represent the Oromo people. How do you perceive the OLF and its activities?
Prof Merera: For several years the OLF leadership used to have some sort of alliance with the EPLF, the alliance, which was put to severe test during the OLF - EPRDF confrontation in 1992. Currently, the propaganda of the Ethiopian government and the independent press reports is indicating the new leadership of the OLF is cooperating with the EPLF. However, a member of the new OLF leadership in his recent interviews given to VOA shied away from confirming these reports of cooperation, but publicly called for the neutrality of the Oromo people in the ongoing Ethio-Eritrean conflict. This be it as it may, what should be clear to all the concerned, especially to the Oromo people beyond a shadow of doubt is that neither the OLF's cooperation with the EPLF nor with the Somalia war lords bring the Oromo people anywhere nearer to its salvation.
Addis Tribune: What are the platforms upon which the Oromo National Congress is formed?
Prof Merera: As the Oromo people are the single largest ethnic group in Ethiopia, we think the best way to advance the fundamental interests of the Oromo people and the rest of other peoples of Ethiopia is to ensure the principle of One - Man - One Vote within greater Ethiopia, [rather] than seeking secession, which is a demand of a minority. This means our platform is the transformation of the Ethiopian state along democratic lines where both unity in diversity and equality of all the peoples of Ethiopia are fully guaranteed.
Addis Tribune: Ethiopia has experienced a variety of political systems, or systems of governance, during her long history. During this century alone Ethiopia has gone from a monarchy to communist military dictatorship to a form of democracy based on ethnically defined groupings. What is your assessment of the impact that this most recent political system has had on the well being of the Ethiopian people?
Prof Merera: What should be clear from the outset to all those who want to understand the Ethiopian reality is that - all the ills of Ethiopian society are not created by the EPRDF alone. Nor is the real issue "democracy" based on ethnically defined groupings. Having said that, to me, the major pitfalls of the EPRDF - sponsored democratic transformation in Ethiopia are that the EPRDF:
- promises multi-party democracy but institutionalizes a de facto one-party state;
- preaches the right of self-determination to various peoples of Ethiopia, federal system of governance and/or decentralization of power, etc., but builds probably the most centralized state in Ethiopia's modern history;
- promises 'free and fair' elections but in practice resorts to 'elections without choice';
- preaches free enterprise but controls the commanding sectors of the country's economy through its business empire;
- calls for the creation of strong opposition in the country, but makes sure this should never materialize. In short, there is a serious discrepancy between its promises and deeds, theory and practice. As a result, sadly, the country's meager resources are being wasted to maintain a system [that] is unresponsive to the well being of the Ethiopian peoples. The evidence is all around us: the unbearable rising cost of living for millions, rampant unemployment, disruption of life for hundreds of thousands, the disturbingly growing gap between the few rich and millions of poverty stricken citizens, stagnant business activities, etc. Therefore, the system being experimented is neither democratic nor [is it a] promoter of the well being of the great majority of the Ethiopian peoples.
Addis Tribune: How can a political party representing a group defined by ethnicity provide fair and effective leadership for the entire country if elected to power? Are the issues, at their fundamental level, confronting an Oromo different from say a Gurage, or an Amhara, or a Tigrayan?
Prof Merera: Fundamentally, the basic needs of people whether in Ethiopia or the "promised" land of America are bread, clothing and shelter. But the road to these basic needs is not as simple as your leading question seems to suggest. Sadly, many people easily forget our history, especially what has brought us to the present political quagmire. In fact, if we are to be honest [with] ourselves, the political vision of some is blurred by the nostalgia of the past while others are preoccupied to fulfill their present and future dreams. To me, we can come nearer to the solution of the national question in Ethiopia only if we fully comprehend why and how the 'nation-building' project of the imperial regime, which was based on the 'mandate of heaven' and the 'regional autonomy' formula of the military regime, which used socialism as a passport to power have failed and now the 'ethnic hegemony' of the EPRDF government is already foundering. That means, both those who dismiss the just demands of the hitherto marginalised ethnic groups in Ethiopia as side issues on the one hand, and those who crudely manipulate the historical wounds of the groups as passport to power are not contributing to the just solution of this chronic problem. What needs to be done is to honestly engineer a political system where both the individual democratic rights of all citizens of Ethiopia and the collective rights of the various ethnic groups in the country are fully respected side by side in an accommodative manner. The first major step towards this lofty goal is initiating a national dialogue through which the various peoples of Ethiopia reach an acceptable national consensus on how to live together in a fully democratized state of Ethiopia. To be sure, once a political will is obtained from all the parties concerned for such a genuine national dialogue, there can be a lot of political engineering mechanisms to rework a new social contract, which [will] facilitate the birth of a New Ethiopia that can be a comfortable home for all us.
Addis Tribune: Ideologically based parties, by definition, are open to all members of society without regard to ethnicity, religion, geographic location, and so forth. If unity and national cohesion are considered ideals for a modern state, are not ideologically based political parties more appropriate for a country with over eighty ethnic groups, as opposed to ethnic based parties?
Prof Merera: In addition to what I have said above, theoretically, multi-ethnic parties can better address societal needs across ethnic divides. However, what Ethiopian history has bestowed to us is not an ideally perfected society where we can easily provide ideal solutions to our problems. Hence, it is very useful to follow the cardinal teachings of Political Science, which advises us that 'politics is the art of the possible'. And for me, what is both ideal as well as possible in today's Ethiopia is the creation of a democratic atmosphere where the two modalities of party organization exist side by side and compete peacefully to get the mandate of the people. Furthermore, in our situation, it is advisable to judge the parties not by their clothes but by what they positively contribute to the well being of the people they claim to represent.
Addis Tribune: How is your party is doing. How many followers do you have? Where are your constituents located - in Addis Ababa, the regions, or outside Ethiopia?
Prof Merera: Our party is a very young organization of less than three years old, but we are doing relatively well both in the ideological battle and organizationally. We have started with a membership of about 766. Since then we have been operating both inside and outside the country and our main preoccupation has been recruiting new members and building the structure of the organization. To put it more precisely, inside the country we have members in all the Oromo regions and outside the country we have members in Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands, England, Canada and in many major cities of the US. In short we are growing both in number and strength.
Addis Tribune: You were one of the opposition leaders present at the Paris conference several months back. What has been the outcome of that meeting?
Prof Merera: As we have already made public, we created the Coalition of Ethiopian Opposition Parties Organization (CEOPO); we produced three working documents, namely, the resolution of our meeting, the call for national dialogue and the initiative for 'free and fair elections' as our common platform of struggle in the years ahead, all of which are aimed at facilitating the solution of our country's problems peacefully and with an eye on the year 2000 elections. In other words, the main outcomes of the Second Paris Meeting are: the creation of a promising coalition of opposition forces and the adoption of a common political platform which could make them speak with a united voice and significantly enhance the activities of the varied opposition groupings both inside and outside the country.
Addis Tribune: Will you be participating in the upcoming parliamentary elections (year 2000)?
Prof Merera: If the ruling party fully guarantees the execution of 'free and fair elections' and the play field is leveled, for sure, we would participate in the elections. As to how we [may] fair in the elections, it is too early to speculate how many seats we may win, but judged by the present level of support we have, we are certain to win a reasonable number of seats both by ourselves and in a coalition with others. However, what should be underlined in this connection is that what is important is not the number of seats we may win, but the fairness of the democratic process that can move us forward by opening a new chapter in our country's history.
Addis Tribune: To run for office requires significant resources. What are the Oromo National Congress's sources of funds? Will you have enough money for a meaningful campaign by the year 2000?
Prof Merera: This is the most serious problem we have been facing since the creation of our organization in April 1996. At any rate, whatever our financial condition at present, we hope that when the elections becomes real many Oromos will live up to the challenge of paying for their long awaited freedom.
Addis Tribune: Many opposition groups are unhappy with their dialogue with the EPRDF government. Do you share their sentiment?
Prof Merera: Yes, I fully share their disappointment.
Addis Tribune: This is a critical time in the history of Ethiopia. What is the best way for the ruling party and opposition groups to work?
Prof Merera: In my opinion, as I have indicated earlier, to engage in a national dialogue both seriously and responsibly is the only way out. Needless to add, shadow boxing by the EPRDF leadership and some of the opposition groups will never solve our problem, as it never did in the past.
Addis Tribune: Do you have anything else that you would like to add?
Prof Merera: The call for national dialogue is both timely and the only possible way out to save the country and its people from the perilous road to destruction and yet another nightmare. Therefore, both the citizens of Ethiopia and the international community should make their own contribution to translate this lofty ideal into reality so that we move forward together to create a New Ethiopia on the basis of a New Social Contract.